Boris Johnson is launching a bid to court One Nation Conservative MPs in the group of centrist liberals run by Amber Rudd, as he tries to pitch himself as a candidate who can appeal beyond rightwing Brexit supporters.
The former foreign secretary, who is favourite to be the next Conservative leader, is backed by Brexit hardliner Jacob Rees-Mogg but infuriated many Tory colleagues by backing Theresa May’s deal after months of campaigning against it.
Some Conservative MPs have privately threatened to quit the party if Johnson becomes prime minister, with particular anger over his use of populist rhetoric suggesting that Muslim women wearing burqas resemble bank robbers and “choose to go around looking like letterboxes”.
However, Johnson has been making an effort to reach out to the more centrist wing of the party in recent days, endorsing a mini-manifesto released by Rudd’s group of 60 One Nation MPs, which promotes human rights and social responsibility.
Quick GuideTory tribes
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The ERG hardcore
The most resistant segment of the European Research Group of Eurosceptic Tory MPs comprises 28 pro-Brexit backbenchers who have refused to be wooed by Theresa May and opposed her third attempt to pass her Brexit deal. Steve Baker, Andrew Bridgen and Mark Francois are the most vocal members. Jacob Rees-Mogg remains close to the group despite backing May’s deal. Another 100 MPs have been associated with the ERG, including the potential Tory leadership candidates Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Andrea Leadsom.
Blue-collar Conservatives
Esther McVey, a Brexiter who reluctantly voted for Theresa May’s deal, is the latest Tory to breathe life into the idea of blue-collar conservatism, previously championed by Robert Halfon, the chair of the education select committee. McVey launched her version on 20 May at an event widely seen as the unofficial start of her leadership bid. She and fellow MPs including Eddie Hughes, Ben Bradley and Scott Mann plan to tour UK pubs to spread their message. McVey’s supporters claim to have up to 40 MPs signed up to the group; other Brexiters claim the figure is less than 20.
One Nation Group
Amber Rudd has spearheaded this pro-remain, anti-no-deal group of MPs, which includes the international development secretary, Rory Stewart, and the former cabinet ministers Nicky Morgan and Damian Green. The group claims to have more than 60 MPs onboard and plans to stand against “narrow nationalism” and division and in favour of internationalism, environmental policies and protecting consumers from corporations and an “over-mighty state”.
Scottish Tories
Led by the hugely popular Ruth Davidson, the leader of the Scottish Tories in Holyrood, and the Scottish secretary, David Mundell, this group’s overtly remain tendencies put them at odds with the likes of the ERG. Among the 13 Scottish Tory MPs and 31 MSPs there is controversy over Boris Johnson, who is a highly divisive figure in Scotland.
Modernists
A loose term nowadays, since the former Cameroons are largely nowhere to be seen. Those flying the flag for a more socially progressive, relatable kind of conservatism include the former education secretary Justine Greening and the health secretary, Matt Hancock, who even set up his own app in an attempt to keep up with the digital age. Both Greening and Hancock want to move on from Brexit so that other issues can be dealt with, but they are split on what that should look like. Greening has promoted a second referendum, while Hancock is urging all Brexiters to get behind May’s deal.
His change of tack has provoked fresh speculation that Rudd could back Johnson, even though she has campaigned against a hard Brexit.
Friends of the work and pensions secretary say she privately dismisses the idea that she will end up supporting Johnson’s leadership bid when asked about it. However, one MP in the One Nation group said it was very plausible that she will be tempted by the possibility of a big job from Johnson and his potential to save her seat at a general election, since she is MP for the marginal constituency of Hastings and Rye – where her 4,796 majority from 2015 was cut to just 346 in 2017.
Rudd has not ruled out running for the leadership herself but is thought likely to end up backing one of the other candidates and bringing her supporters with her.
Another One Nation source said it was certainly possible that Rudd could end up backing a first choice candidate and then pivoting to back Johnson in the last round if he were to be in a runoff with Dominic Raab or Esther McVey, the most rightwing pro-Brexit leadership candidates.
“It’s really not a Stop Boris vehicle, if anything it is more Stop Raab,” the One Nation source said. “But it is not about the person; it is about the policies. There is no chance that all 60 MPs in the group will back the same person but there is a chance all 60 won’t back a certain person and it is far more likely that person will be Raab rather than Boris.
“We’ve got to get the next phase of the Conservative party right. This is the prime minister who will take us into an election in 2020 or 2022 and that will determine how the next 10 years plays out. We want the most well-rounded candidate. If that’s Boris, it’s Boris. If it’s not, it’s not. This vehicle is intended to ensure the party stays relevant to the centre ground.”
The success of Johnson as a leadership candidate depends on his ability to woo enough Conservative MPs to put him in the list of a final two candidates who will then be put to the membership. The pro-Brexit, rightwing Conservative membership heavily favours Johnson ahead of other candidates, according to surveys by the ConservativeHome website.
One supporter of Johnson said: “He is a one nation Tory and always has been, and I think many of his colleagues see this.”
They said Johnson was different to Raab who is “very much a rightwinger” on domestic policy. “Everyone can see Boris is on a different place on domestic policy and it is a natural fit for many of them,” they said. “The party has never been as hostile to him as people make out.”
However, while some centrist MPs believe Johnson offers the best chance of winning an election, others are part of a Stop Boris campaign arguing that he is too divisive and hardline on Brexit to be prime minister.
On Tuesday, he was branded an unacceptable candidate to be prime minister by the Conservative minister Margot James, because of his “fuck business” remark when asked about companies’ concerns over Brexit.
James, a business minister and leading member of the One Nation Conservative group, said the comment meant Johnson was not fit for “high public office” as she addressed a Creative England event in London.
Speaking later to the Guardian, she said some of her colleagues promoting Brexit at any cost to business had the “wrong attitude”.
“I don’t think people in the public eye should be using language like that to discuss the concerns of the business community,” she said. “It’s the dismissive attitude to business that’s a problem among some people for whom Brexit is everything.”
Quick GuideTory leadership contenders
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Jeremy Hunt
His style is notably technocratic, with few rhetorical flourishes and an emphasis on his consensual approach and long record as a minister, notably during more than five years as health secretary, a traditional graveyard of ministerial careers. Hunt’s attempts to talk up a backstory as an 'underestimated' entrepreneur can fall flat given he is also the son of an admiral and was head boy at Charterhouse.
Overall, Hunt’s approach can seem uninspiring and hard to pin down in terms of core beliefs, hence the 'Theresa in trousers' nickname among some Tory MPs – one that is more catchy than accurate (since May herself often wears trousers).
In the final round of MP voting Hunt edged out Michael Gove, 77 votes to 75.
Boris Johnson
Johnson’s progress to Downing Street appeared unstoppable even before an overwhelming victory in the first round of voting among MPs. Most of his colleagues believe it is now all but inevitable that he will be Britain’s next prime minister.
His well-disciplined campaign team will continue with their strategy of subjecting him to minimal media exposure, though once the field is narrowed down to two, the final pair will appear in more than a dozen head-to-head hustings for Tory members. The team’s main aim is simply to keep heads down and avoid Johnson creating headlines for the wrong reasons. It may not have worked.
Johnson came first in the final round of MP voting with 160 votes.
She said another pro-Brexit leadership hopeful had privately been dismissive about businesses’ concerns to her, saying: “Oh, the tech industry is always moaning.”
She said: “That these people should be anywhere near the levers of power is quite worrying.”
Johnson was reported to have made the “fuck business” remark in July last year when asked about industry’s concerns over Brexit at a diplomatic event.
He later refused to deny he had made the comments, acknowledging in the Commons that he may have “expressed scepticism about some of the views of those who profess to speak up for business”.
A source close to Johnson said his remarks on business had been aimed at “business lobby groups sending out anti-Brexit propaganda”, and argued that “you would find it hard to find anyone more devoted to business than he has been and his record particularly in London on businesses both great and small”.